Buffers hidden inside estimates are consumed silently
Padding every task means every task expands to fill its padding. A visible shared buffer is smaller and actually available.
Time Core · Object
Contingency Planning
What happens when the plan slips: where it slips, what absorbs it, what the fallback is, and when the decision to change course has to be taken.
The term
What it is
Plans slip. This object is about what the organisation does then, decided in advance, rather than about preventing it — which the rest of the framework covers.
The most common failure is that the buffer exists in nobody’s plan. Every individual estimate is optimistic, the aggregate has no reserve, and the first delay consumes the whole margin.
The decision point is the part that is almost always missing. By the time a delay is undeniable, the alternatives that required lead time are no longer available, and the organisation has one option left.
Why it earns a place
What goes wrong without it
The alternatives expire before the delay is admitted
A fallback requiring six weeks of lead time is not available when the slip is acknowledged four weeks before the deadline.
Deciding under pressure produces the option that requires no decision
Which is usually continuing, and it is chosen because the alternatives needed to be started earlier.
One level in
The modules within contingency planning
Four working areas: understanding where plans actually slip, holding a reserve that works, preparing an alternative, and deciding before it is too late to choose.
The fallback plan
What is done instead, prepared far enough in advance that it remains available when it is needed.
LearnDecision points
When the choice between continuing and changing course has to be taken, derived from the lead time of the alternatives rather than from the deadline.
Learn
Across the framework
What it touches
- Project managementSlippage is a project’s most common failure, and this object is what the project does about it.
- Business CoreSupply resilience covers what happens when supply fails; this object covers what happens when time does.
- Goal CoreA slipped plan raises the question of whether the goal moves, which is a decision rather than a consequence.
- Data CoreSlippage history is data the organisation already has and almost never uses.
Beyond the framework
Models worth knowing here
The Omnigoal says where this belongs and what it touches. It does not tell you how to think about it — other people have done that, and done it well. These are theirs.
Scenario planning
Pierre Wack and colleagues at Shell · 1985Several internally consistent futures, written out in detail, instead of one forecast with a margin of error.
The purpose is not to predict but to make managers capable of recognising a future when it starts arriving. Wack’s account is explicit that the scenarios matter less than the change in what executives are prepared to see — which is why scenarios written by consultants and read once accomplish nothing.
- Reach for it when
- When planning rests on a single projection, and where the uncertainty is structural rather than statistical.
- Where it stops
- It is slow and demanding, and its value is destroyed by treating the scenarios as a menu with one marked most likely.
Pierre Wack, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead” and “Shooting the Rapids”, Harvard Business Review, 1985.
The pre-mortem
Gary Klein · 2007Assume the plan has already failed a year from now, and have everyone write down why.
The reversal does the work. Asking what could go wrong invites loyal reassurance; stating that it did go wrong and asking for the reasons gives people permission to say what they already suspected. In the research behind it, prospective hindsight of this kind substantially increased the number of causes people could identify.
- Reach for it when
- Immediately after a plan is agreed and before it is committed to — it takes under an hour.
- Where it stops
- It surfaces concerns; it does not weigh them or fix them. Run as a ritual with no obligation to change the plan, it is worse than not running it.
Gary Klein, “Performing a Project Premortem”, Harvard Business Review, 2007; building on Mitchell, Russo & Pennington, 1989.
These are other people’s models, named here so you can go to the source and use them properly. The Omnigoal is not affiliated with their authors and is not endorsed by them; nothing of theirs is reproduced here — no canvas, no diagram, no wording. Each is described in our own words, with the originator credited, because the framework is a place to put thinking, not a replacement for the people who did it. Model names and trademarks belong to their respective owners and are used here only to refer to the work itself.
Every model in the framework, and where each one belongsBy the time a delay is undeniable, the alternatives that needed lead time are gone. Decide earlier.
The other objects in the Time Core
Project management
Project Management is the cornerstone of the Time Core, focusing on coordinating resources, timelines, and activities to ensure projects are completed efficiently and effectively. This comprehensive approach emphasises meticulous time management, from planning and execution to the closure of projects, ensuring that deadlines are met and goals are achieved within the set timeframe. Effective project management is crucial for optimising time use, achieving organisational objectives, and maintaining a competitive edge.
LearnMarket Timing
Determines the optimal time for launching new products or entering new markets. This is key for capitalising on market opportunities and achieving a competitive edge.
LearnGolden Opportunities
Identifies and capitalises on unique, high-impact opportunities that arise unexpectedly. This ensures the business can quickly leverage these opportunities for maximum benefit.
LearnYear Wheel
Provides a visual and strategic overview of the year, outlining key activities, milestones, and events. This ensures that the business remains focused and aligned throughout the year.
Learn