Long term goals · Assumptions and scenarios · Component
Signposts
The early indicators that would tell you which scenario is arriving, and who is watching for them.
The deliverable
What it is
Scenarios are useless without signposts. A set of described futures that nobody is watching for is a document, not a capability.
The requirement is observability: something that would appear in the world, not a judgement someone would have to make.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The signals
What would show up first if a given scenario were arriving.
3 attributes: Scenario · Signal · Where visible
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A signpost with no named watcher is not being watched. That is usually where scenario work quietly stops being useful.
The other components in assumptions and scenarios
The assumption register
The stated conditions the goal depends on, each marked for how certain and how important it is.
LearnThe scenario set
Two or three described futures built from the critical uncertainties — enough detail that you could tell which one you were in.
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