Long term goals · Assumptions and scenarios · Component
The assumption register
The stated conditions the goal depends on, each marked for how certain and how important it is.
The deliverable
What it is
Every long-range goal rests on beliefs about how the world will behave. Those beliefs are usually held confidently, stated nowhere, and never formally abandoned.
Most of the value is in having written them down at all. The rating and review are refinements on top of that.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The assumptions
What has to remain true for the goal to make sense.
2 attributes: Assumption · Domain
LearnThe rating
How certain each assumption is, and how much rests on it.
2 attributes: Certainty · Importance
LearnThe review
When each assumption was last checked, and whether it still holds.
2 attributes: Last reviewed · Standing
Learn
Assumptions do not announce their own failure. If a critical one has not been reviewed in two years, it is unverified rather than true.
The other components in assumptions and scenarios
The scenario set
Two or three described futures built from the critical uncertainties — enough detail that you could tell which one you were in.
LearnSignposts
The early indicators that would tell you which scenario is arriving, and who is watching for them.
Learn