Long term goals · Assumptions and scenarios · Component
The scenario set
Two or three described futures built from the critical uncertainties — enough detail that you could tell which one you were in.
The deliverable
What it is
Scenario work is not forecasting. The point is not to predict which future arrives but to have thought about more than one, so an unexpected arrival is a recognised situation.
Two or three is the working number. More produces a document nobody reads; one is a forecast with extra steps.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The axes
The critical uncertainties the scenarios are built from.
2 attributes: From assumption · Range
LearnThe worlds
Each described future, with enough detail to be recognisable.
3 attributes: Name · Description · Implication
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The robust moves are the real output. Scenarios that produce no action you would take today have been an interesting exercise and nothing more.
The other components in assumptions and scenarios
The assumption register
The stated conditions the goal depends on, each marked for how certain and how important it is.
LearnSignposts
The early indicators that would tell you which scenario is arriving, and who is watching for them.
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