Long term goals · Long-range ambition · Component
The confidence note
A recorded sense of how likely the ambition is, so that later optimism or despair can be compared against the starting view.
The deliverable
What it is
Nobody remembers accurately how confident they were once the outcome is known. The note is what makes the comparison possible at all.
It also calibrates the ambition. Universal confidence usually means it is too small; universal doubt means it will not motivate.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The initial view
How likely the ambition seemed when it was set.
3 attributes: Assessment · Spread · Recorded on
LearnThe drivers
What the confidence rests on and what would most change it.
2 attributes: Rests on · Biggest swing factor
LearnThe track
How confidence has moved since the ambition was set.
2 attributes: Current · What changed it
Learn
Confidence that has only ever risen is not being assessed. Somebody is reporting the mood rather than the odds.
The other components in long-range ambition
The ambition statement
One sentence naming the destination and the year — specific enough to recognise on arrival, distant enough that the route is not yet designed.
LearnThe arrival test
What would have to be observably true for the ambition to count as reached — written now, so it cannot be redefined later.
Learn