Attribute · Judgement
Confidence
A stated degree of certainty, recorded so that later optimism can be compared against it.
The type
What it is
Confidence is what turns an assumption into something testable. Without it, everything in a plan reads as equally certain, which is never true and hides where the real risk sits.
Recording it at the time is the whole value. Nobody remembers accurately how sure they were once the outcome is known.
How it is recorded
A small fixed scale — high, likely, uncertain, unlikely — rather than a spurious percentage.
Examples
- Likely
- Uncertain — depends on the supplier agreement
- High
The usual mistake
Using percentages. They imply a precision nobody has and invite arguments about the number rather than the risk.
Shared across the framework
Where this type is used
93 places in the framework carry this type. Each names it locally; the definition stays here.
Goal Core14 places
- ConfidencePurpose · Reason for being · The refusal test · Hypothetical refusalsA low-confidence refusal is a known weak point rather than a commitment.
- ConfidencePurpose · Integrity · The evidence audit · The inferred purposeHow strongly the sample supports the inference.
- ConfidenceShort term goals · Leading indicators · The causal assumption · The claimHow strongly the claim is held.
- AssessmentLong term goals · Long-range ambition · The confidence note · The initial viewHow likely it seemed at the time.
- CurrentLong term goals · Long-range ambition · The confidence note · The trackWhere confidence stands now.
- ConfidenceLong term goals · Direction of growth · The growth split · The basisHow strongly the expectation is held.
- CertaintyLong term goals · Assumptions and scenarios · The assumption register · The ratingHow sure the organisation is that it holds.
- Their confidenceTactical goals · Cascade and catchball · The agreed commitment · The acceptanceHow likely they think delivery is.
- Their confidenceTactical goals · Ownership · The ownership record · The ownerHow likely they think delivery is.
- Estimate confidenceTactical goals · Resourcing · The resource estimate · The effortHow firm the figure is.
- SupportStrategic goals · Diagnosis · The evidence behind it · The strengthHow strongly the evidence backs the diagnosis.
- Expected strengthStrategic goals · Strategic themes · The causal map · The strengthHow much effect the link is expected to have.
- ConfidenceStrategic goals · Horizon and measures · The horizon · The dateHow likely the date looked when it was set.
- ConfidencePurpose · Core values · The price paid · The costHow firmly the cost is established, since these are frequently estimated afterwards.
Business Core25 places
- ConfidenceHR · Workforce planning · The demand forecast · The assumptionsSeparates the assumptions worth monitoring from the ones that are effectively known.
- ConfidenceHR · Development · The assignment record · The stretchHow confident the manager is that this is achievable with the support offered.
- ConfidenceValue Proposition · Customer jobs and pains · The pain list · The severityWhether the severity is measured, estimated or asserted.
- ConfidenceValue Proposition · Customer jobs and pains · The gain list · The willingnessGuards against a stated preference being read as a price point.
- ConfidenceValue Proposition · The offer · The value map · The strengthWhether the strength is measured with customers or asserted internally.
- ConfidenceValue Proposition · Differentiation · The difference statement · The durabilityHow well founded the durability estimate is.
- ConfidenceValue Proposition · Proof · The proof set · The strength matchHow confident the organisation is that the evidence would survive scrutiny.
- ConfidenceMonetisation · Pricing · The value basis · The ceilingHow well established the ceiling is, as opposed to assumed.
- ConfidenceMonetisation · Margin structure · The cost to serve model · The allocation basisHow sensitive the conclusion is to the basis chosen.
- ConfidenceMonetisation · Revenue quality · The concentration measure · The correlation checkHow well established the correlation is, given it is usually inferred.
- ConfidenceCore Competencies · Identification · The candidate list · The sourceHow strongly held the belief is before any testing — worth capturing, because it predicts resistance.
- ConfidenceCore Competencies · Testing for advantage · The confirmed set · The confirmedHow strong the confirmation is, since some pass the tests marginally.
- ConfidenceCore Competencies · Testing for advantage · The clock · The estimateHow much weight the estimate should carry in planning.
- LikelihoodCore Competencies · Testing for advantage · The clock · The threatsHow probable, which sets how closely it should be watched.
- ConfidenceCore Competencies · Building · The route decision · The retentionHow confident the assessment of retention is.
- ConfidenceCore Competencies · Protecting · The embedding record · The coverageHow confident the coverage estimate is.
- ConfidenceOperational Systems · Tooling · The fit assessment · The fitWhether the assessment reflects actual use or configuration in principle.
- ConfidenceOperational Systems · Continuous improvement · The improvement log · The expectationHow sure they were, which makes calibration visible over time.
- Attribution confidenceOperational Systems · Continuous improvement · The measurement · The confoundersHow confident the attribution to the change is, held honestly.
- ConfidenceStakeholders · Reporting · The report content · The interpretationHow confident that reading is, which recipients value more than certainty.
- ConfidenceFinance · Budgeting · The budget · The assumptionsHow solid it is, which indicates where variance is likely.
- ConfidenceFinance · Forecasting · The forecast · The assumptionsHow solid it is.
- LikelihoodFinance · Forecasting · The scenario set · The scenariosA rough assessment, held loosely.
- ConfidenceFinance · Cash flow · The cash forecast · The inflowsHow certain, which for large single receipts is the critical field.
- ConfidenceCompliance · Regulatory mapping · The obligations register · The sourcesHow settled the interpretation is.
Brand Core12 places
- ConfidenceBrand promise · The promise · The origin · The capability basisHow confident the organisation is that the capability actually supports it.
- ConfidenceBrand promise · Deliverability · The cost to keep · The margin impactHow well established the return is, as opposed to assumed.
- ConfidenceBrand promise · Keeping it · The trust reading · The recovery lagHow well established the lag is, given it is measured rarely.
- ConfidenceBrand Identity · Brand personality · The traits · The evidenceHow well supported the trait is, held honestly.
- ConfidenceBrand Positioning · Points of difference · The accepted trade-off · The costHow well established the cost figure is.
- ConfidenceBrand Positioning · The positioning statement · The reason to believe · The durabilityHow well founded the estimate is.
- ConfidenceBrand Positioning · Brand architecture · The case per brand · The justificationHow well supported the justification is.
- ConfidenceBrand Positioning · Brand architecture · The case per brand · The net positionHow well established the return estimate is.
- ConfidenceBrand Value · Associations · The unintended · The originHow well established the origin is, since this is usually inferred.
- ConfidenceBrand Value · Loyalty · The lock-in · The adjusted loyaltyHow well founded the adjustment is.
- ConfidenceBrand Value · Valuation · The price premium · The implicationHow much of the premium is confidently attributable to brand.
- ConfidenceBrand Perception · The identity–image gap · The priority gaps · The valueHow well founded the estimate is.
Vision Core2 places
- ConfidenceVision Statement · Reachability · The conditions · The controlHow likely it is to become true, for the uncontrolled ones.
- ConfidenceVision Statement · What it rules out · The exclusions · The costHow well founded the estimate is.
Market Core17 places
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Sizing · The build-up · The frequencyHow well established the figure is.
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Sizing · The sanity check · The sensitivityHow well founded that input is.
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Growth and direction · The rate · The forecastHow much weight the forecast should carry.
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Growth and direction · The drivers · The durabilityHow well founded the estimate is.
- LikelihoodMarket Opportunities · Growth and direction · The drivers · The reversalHow probable, roughly.
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Growth and direction · The stage · The stage verdictHow settled the judgement is.
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Opportunity assessment · The fit · The existingHow well evidenced the claim to hold it is.
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Opportunity assessment · The why-unserved · The barrierHow well established the explanation is.
- ConfidenceMarket Opportunities · Opportunity assessment · The why-unserved · The differenceHow much weight the difference actually bears.
- ConfidenceCompetitors · The competitor set · The review · The outside watchHow plausible, held loosely.
- ConfidenceCompetitors · Capability comparison · The comparison · The evidenceHow firm the assessment is.
- ConfidenceCompetitors · Reading their strategy · The inferred intent · The goalHow firm the reading is.
- ConfidenceCompetitors · Reading their strategy · The prediction · The expectationHow firmly it is held.
- ConfidenceTarget Audience · Segment value · The lifetime value · The durationWhether the figure is measured or assumed.
- ConfidenceCustomer Journey · Attribution · The unobservable · The proxyHow much weight it can carry.
- ConfidenceMarketing Channels · The mix · The sequence · The lagHow firm the figure is.
- ConfidenceMarketing Channels · Testing and incrementality · The result · The verdictHow much weight the conclusion can carry.
Data Core7 places
- ReliabilityKPI management · Choosing what to measure · The candidates · The collectabilityHow consistently it could actually be gathered.
- ConfidencePerformance Analysis · The question · The changing answer · The priorHow firmly it is held.
- ConfidencePerformance Analysis · Method · The limits · The interimHow much weight it can bear.
- ConfidencePerformance Analysis · Reading the result · The finding · The interpretationHow firmly the interpretation is held.
- PlausibilityPerformance Analysis · Reading the result · The alternatives · The explanationsHow likely it is.
- ConfidencePerformance Analysis · Reading the result · The confidence · The levelHow much weight the finding can bear.
- ConfidencePerformance Analysis · Acting on it · The recommendation · The basisHow firmly the recommendation is held.
Omni Core7 places
- ConfidenceCustomer Journey Mapping · Moments that matter · The priorities · The valueHow well founded the estimate is.
- ConfidenceCustomer Journey Mapping · Redesign · The measurement · The attributionHow confidently the effect can be attributed.
- ConfidenceCustomer Feedback · Gathering it · The coverage · The caveatHow much the skew limits the conclusions.
- ConfidenceUI and UX Optimization · Design decisions · The rationale · The evidenceHow firmly the decision is held.
- ConfidencePersonalization · Whether it works · The decision · The verdictHow firmly the finding is held.
- ConfidenceLoyalty Programs · The economics · The return · The incremental revenueHow firmly the attribution holds.
- ConfidenceLoyalty Programs · Behaviour change · The verdict · The conclusionHow firmly the conclusion is held.
Time Core9 places
- ConfidenceMarket Timing · The window · The opening · The durabilityHow firmly this assessment is held.
- ConfidenceMarket Timing · The window · The duration · The estimateHow well founded it is.
- LikelihoodMarket Timing · The window · The duration · The closersHow probable.
- ConfidenceMarket Timing · Early and late · The early cost · The waitHow firm the estimate is.
- ConfidenceGolden Opportunities · The record · The decisions · The reasoningHow confident the decision-maker was.
- ConfidenceGolden Opportunities · The record · The expectation · The predictionHow firmly it was held.
- ConfidenceContingency Planning · The fallback plan · The lead time · The totalHow firm the estimate is.
- ConfidenceYear Wheel · The cycle · The demand cycle · The driversHow well understood the driver is.
- ConfidenceYear Wheel · Load across the year · The committed load · The placementHow firm the timing is.
Every attribute type in the framework is listed in the attribute library.