Goal Core · Short term goals · Module
Leading indicators
Measures that move before the outcome does, and therefore give you time. Distinguishing them from lagging measures is what makes a short review useful rather than merely early.
The idea
How it works
A lagging measure tells you what happened. A leading measure tells you what is about to, and the difference is entirely whether you can still act on it.
Every leading indicator rests on a causal assumption — that this thing moving now will cause that thing to move later. The assumption is usually unstated and sometimes wrong, which is why it is worth writing down beside the indicator.
Working with it
In practice
- 01
Name the outcome first
You cannot choose a leading indicator without knowing what it is supposed to lead to.
- 02
Ask what precedes it
What reliably happens before that outcome, early enough to be worth watching?
- 03
Write the assumption down
State the causal claim explicitly. It is now testable rather than merely believed.
- 04
Check the link over time
If the indicator moved and the outcome did not, the assumption was wrong and the indicator should go.
One level in
The components of leading indicators
A component is something that exists afterwards which did not exist before — a deliverable or a mechanism, not an intention.
The indicator set
The chosen leading measures, each paired with the lagging outcome it is meant to predict.
LearnThe causal assumption
For each pairing, the stated reason for believing the one leads to the other.
LearnThe tracking cadence
How often each is read, and by whom — frequent enough to act on, rare enough to mean something.
Learn
An indicator that is easy to influence directly will be influenced directly, and stops predicting anything. Watch for that before trusting it.
The other modules in short term goals
Quarterly objectives
A small number of specific, demanding commitments set for a quarter and reviewed at its end — few enough that they can all be named from memory.
LearnMilestones
Dated checkpoints inside longer work, each one a moment where progress becomes visible and a decision to continue is genuinely available.
LearnQuick wins
Results chosen deliberately because they will be seen — unambiguous, attributable to the effort, and early. Selecting them is a communication decision as much as an operational one.
Learn