Short term goals · Leading indicators · Component
The causal assumption
The stated reason for believing the leading measure actually leads to the outcome — written down so it can be tested rather than merely believed.
The deliverable
What it is
Every leading indicator rests on a causal claim. The claim is usually held confidently, stated nowhere, and sometimes wrong.
Writing it down converts it from a belief into something falsifiable, which is the only way an indicator set improves over time.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The evidence
What supports the claim, and how strong that support is.
2 attributes: Basis · Strength
LearnThe check
Whether the link has held when tested against what actually happened.
2 attributes: Last checked · Result
Learn
When the indicator moved and the outcome did not, the assumption was wrong. Remove the indicator rather than explaining the discrepancy.
The other components in leading indicators
The indicator set
The chosen leading measures, each paired with the lagging outcome it is meant to predict.
LearnThe tracking cadence
How often each indicator is read and by whom — frequent enough to act on, rare enough to mean something.
Learn