Golden Opportunities · The record · Component

The expectation

What was expected to happen, recorded at the time — because expectations reconstructed afterwards match whatever occurred.

The deliverable

What it is

A decision without a recorded expectation cannot be assessed. Any outcome can be reconciled with a belief that was never written down.

The expectation should be specific enough to be wrong, which is what makes the later check meaningful.

One level in

What it is made of

Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.

  1. The prediction

    What was expected.

    3 attributes: Expected outcome · By when · Confidence

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  2. The conditions

    What the expectation depended on.

    3 attributes: Assumption · Held · Knowable at the time

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  3. The alternative

    What was expected to happen instead.

    3 attributes: Expected instead · Capacity used for · Happened

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For a decline, record what the freed capacity was expected to do instead. It is usually the reason the decline was wrong.