Time Core · Market Timing · Module
Early and late
What each error costs — asymmetric, and usually assessed as though it were not.
The idea
How it works
First-mover advantage is real under specific conditions — network effects, switching costs, scarce resources locked up — and absent otherwise. Assuming it generally is the most expensive timing error available.
Entering early costs cash for longer and educates the market for whoever follows. Entering late costs a harder position against an established incumbent. Both are survivable and they are survivable differently.
Working with it
In practice
- 01
Check whether first-mover advantage applies here
Network effects, switching costs or locked resources. Where none is present, following is cheaper and frequently better.
- 02
Cost the early error in cash
How long the organisation would fund a market that is not ready. That is the actual constraint.
- 03
Cost the late error in position
What it takes to displace an incumbent, which is considerably more than reaching an empty market.
- 04
Decide which error you can survive
They are not equally recoverable, and which one is worse depends on the organisation rather than on the market.
One level in
The components of early and late
A component is something that exists afterwards which did not exist before — a deliverable or a mechanism, not an intention.
First-mover advantage holds under specific conditions. Assuming it generally is the most expensive timing error.
The other modules in market timing
Market readiness
Whether the conditions for demand actually exist — awareness of the problem, willingness to pay, and whatever the solution depends on.
LearnThe window
How long the opening lasts and what closes it — because an opening with no estimated duration is treated as permanent.
LearnSignals to watch
What would indicate the market is becoming ready, watched by someone rather than noticed retrospectively.
Learn