Time Core · Market Timing · Module
Market readiness
Whether the conditions for demand actually exist — awareness of the problem, willingness to pay, and whatever the solution depends on.
The idea
How it works
A market is ready when buyers already know they have the problem. Where they do not, the first entrant pays to teach them and later entrants sell to the educated.
The prerequisites are usually specific and checkable: an enabling technology, a regulatory change, a price point reached, or a behaviour that has become normal.
Working with it
In practice
- 01
Check whether buyers name the problem
Unprompted. If you have to explain the problem before the solution, the market is not ready.
- 02
List the prerequisites
What has to exist for this to work. Each is checkable and their absence is the answer.
- 03
Look for existing spending
Money already being spent badly on the problem is the strongest readiness signal available.
- 04
Distinguish early adopters from the market
Enthusiasts buy anything interesting. Their purchase is not evidence that the market is ready.
One level in
The components of market readiness
A component is something that exists afterwards which did not exist before — a deliverable or a mechanism, not an intention.
If you have to explain the problem before the solution, the market is not ready yet.
The other modules in market timing
The window
How long the opening lasts and what closes it — because an opening with no estimated duration is treated as permanent.
LearnSignals to watch
What would indicate the market is becoming ready, watched by someone rather than noticed retrospectively.
LearnEarly and late
What each error costs — asymmetric, and usually assessed as though it were not.
Learn