Time Core · Market Timing · Module
The window
How long the opening lasts and what closes it — because an opening with no estimated duration is treated as permanent.
The idea
How it works
Openings are created by something: a regulatory change, a technology becoming available, an incumbent’s difficulty. Whatever created it will eventually be matched, resolved or copied.
The useful comparison is between how long the window lasts and how long the organisation needs. Where the second exceeds the first, entering is a decision to arrive late.
Working with it
In practice
- 01
Name what created the opening
The specific change. Without it the window cannot be estimated at all.
- 02
Estimate how long before it closes
Roughly. A rough estimate beats treating it as permanent, which is the default.
- 03
Compare with your own lead time
How long to be ready. Where that exceeds the window, the decision is already made.
- 04
Watch for early closure
A competitor moving, a regulation clarified, an incumbent responding. Windows close faster than they open.
One level in
The components of the window
A component is something that exists afterwards which did not exist before — a deliverable or a mechanism, not an intention.
Compare the window with your own lead time. Where yours is longer, the decision has already been made.
The other modules in market timing
Market readiness
Whether the conditions for demand actually exist — awareness of the problem, willingness to pay, and whatever the solution depends on.
LearnSignals to watch
What would indicate the market is becoming ready, watched by someone rather than noticed retrospectively.
LearnEarly and late
What each error costs — asymmetric, and usually assessed as though it were not.
Learn