Market Timing · Early and late · Component
The early cost
What entering before the market is ready would consume — usually cash, for longer than anyone plans.
The deliverable
What it is
Early entry costs cash for an indefinite period while the market is educated, and the education benefits every subsequent entrant equally.
The binding question is not whether the market will arrive but whether the organisation can fund the wait, and that is a runway calculation.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The burn
What operating in an unready market costs per period.
3 attributes: Cost per period · Against mature · Main driver
LearnThe wait
How long before the market arrives.
3 attributes: Expected wait · Confidence · Already waiting
LearnThe runway
Whether the organisation can fund the wait.
3 attributes: Total cost of waiting · Available · Fundable
Learn
A market that has been about to arrive for three years frequently continues to be about to arrive.
The other components in early and late
The late cost
What displacing an established position would take — considerably more than reaching an empty market.
LearnThe advantage test
Whether being first actually confers anything here — because first-mover advantage holds under specific conditions and is assumed generally.
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