Business Core · Finance · Module

Investment appraisal

How proposals to commit capital are judged before approval, and compared afterwards with what they actually delivered.

The idea

How it works

Discounted cash flow asks a plain question: is the money a project returns, adjusted for when it arrives and for the risk it carries, worth more than the money it consumes? Net present value answers in currency; internal rate of return and payback answer related questions, and Graham and Harvey’s survey of practice found that most organisations use several side by side. Each measure has a known blind spot, which is the argument for reading them together.

The appraisal is half of the discipline. Projects approved on forecasts that are never checked teach the organisation nothing about its own forecasting, and the post-investment review is where that learning happens. This module owns the method, the approval criteria and the review. How much money is available in the period is set under Budgeting; the lifetime cost of an individual asset is worked out under Lifecycle in Business assets and enters the appraisal as an input; the value of keeping an option open under uncertainty is treated with Golden opportunities in the Time Core.

Working with it

In practice

  1. 01

    Appraise cash, not accounting profit

    Depreciation and cost allocations change reported profit without moving money. The appraisal follows cash in and out, period by period.

  2. 02

    Read more than one measure

    NPV shows size, IRR shows rate and payback shows exposure. A project strong on one and weak on another deserves a closer look.

  3. 03

    Record the discount rate and its basis

    A rate adjusted until the project passes is hard to detect afterwards unless the reasoning was written down at the time.

  4. 04

    Book the review at approval

    Fix the date and the measures of the post-investment review when the project is approved, while the forecasts are still on the table.

One level in

The components of investment appraisal

A component is something that exists afterwards which did not exist before — a deliverable or a mechanism, not an intention.

  1. Project appraisal

    The projected cash flows, the rate, the resulting measures and their sensitivity, for one proposal.

    Learn
  2. Investment criteria

    The standards every proposal is judged against, and who may approve at what size.

    Learn
  3. Post-investment review

    What each approved project was expected to deliver, what it did deliver, and what the difference teaches.

    Learn

Set the review date when the project is approved. A forecast that is never compared with an outcome has no way of improving.