Project management · Closing · Component

The record

Estimated against actual, and what accounts for the difference — the entire basis on which the next estimate can be better.

The deliverable

What it is

An organisation that never records estimate accuracy makes the same errors indefinitely and attributes them to circumstances each time.

One line per project builds a reference class within a year, and reference-class forecasting outperforms careful estimation by a wide margin.

One level in

What it is made of

Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.

  1. The comparison

    Estimated against actual.

    3 attributes: Estimated · Actual · Ratio

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  2. The explanation

    What accounts for the difference.

    3 attributes: Cause · Attributed · Correctable

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  3. The reference class

    What this project adds to the history.

    3 attributes: Category · Comparable projects · Class ratio

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A dozen recorded projects gives a usable ratio. Most organisations reach that in a year and never assemble it.