Business Core · Innovation · Module
Experiments
Breaking an idea into the assumptions it rests on and testing the riskiest one first, with the smallest test that could change the decision.
The idea
How it works
An idea is a bundle of assumptions: that the problem exists, that people will pay, that it can be delivered at a cost that leaves a margin. Each can be wrong, and they are not equally risky. The work is to name them and test the one most likely to end the idea before spending on the others.
The boundary with neighbouring tests is scope. Comparing two versions of an existing interface is handled under UI and UX Optimization, and the statistics of controlled experiments sit in Performance Analysis. Here the question is whether something new should exist at all, and many useful tests are not statistical — a landing page, a manual version run by hand, ten conversations with a price on the table.
Working with it
In practice
- 01
Write the assumptions down
Desirability, viability and feasibility, each as a sentence that could turn out to be false.
- 02
Rank by risk and by ignorance
The assumption that would end the idea, and about which least is known, goes first.
- 03
Set the threshold before the test
What result would count as a pass, agreed in advance. A threshold chosen afterwards will fit whatever happened.
- 04
Record the finding either way
A failed test that is written down saves someone else from running it again next year.
One level in
The components of experiments
A component is something that exists afterwards which did not exist before — a deliverable or a mechanism, not an intention.
Assumption register
Every assumption an idea depends on, categorised and ranked by how much damage it would do if wrong.
LearnLearning record
What each test found and what was decided because of it, including the tests that failed.
Learn
If a test could not change what happens next, it is a demonstration. Ask what result would stop the idea before running it.
The other modules in innovation
Sources of ideas
Where new ideas come from and how they reach someone who can act on them. Making the routes deliberate does more than asking for more ideas.
LearnPipeline and gates
The stages an idea passes through, the gates between them, and the criteria each must meet — agreed before the gate, including what would stop it.
LearnScaling or stopping
The two ends of the route: moving a proven pilot into ordinary operation, or ending a project cleanly and releasing what it held.
Learn