Performance Analysis · Acting on it · Component

The outcome

Whether the change produced what was predicted — which is how analytical judgement improves rather than merely accumulating.

The deliverable

What it is

Predicting an effect and then checking it is the only mechanism by which analytical judgement calibrates. Without it, an analyst accumulates experience without accumulating accuracy.

The difference between predicted and actual is the finding, and it is frequently more instructive than the original analysis.

One level in

What it is made of

Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.

  1. The prediction

    What the analysis said would happen.

    3 attributes: Predicted effect · Within · Recorded

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  2. The actual

    What happened.

    3 attributes: Actual effect · Measured · Confounders

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  3. The lesson

    What the difference teaches.

    3 attributes: Prediction error · Lesson · Direction

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Predicting an effect and checking it later is the only mechanism by which analytical judgement actually calibrates.