Market Opportunities · Sizing · Component
The sanity check
What the number implies, tested against something observable — because implausible implications surface immediately.
The deliverable
What it is
Every sizing implies things: a market share, a revenue per customer, a unit volume, a headcount required to serve it. Checking those implications against something observable catches most errors in minutes.
The second check is sensitivity: which single assumption, if wrong by half, halves the answer? That assumption is the one worth spending research money on.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The implications
What the figure implies about share, volume or capacity.
3 attributes: Implication · Implied value · Plausible
LearnThe comparator
Something observable the number can be checked against.
3 attributes: Comparator · Their figure · Source
LearnThe sensitivity
Which assumption the answer actually depends on.
3 attributes: Assumption · Effect on total · Confidence
Learn
Find the one assumption that would halve the answer. That is where the research budget should go.