Market Opportunities · Sizing · Component
The three sizes
Total, serviceable and obtainable, held apart so that the right one is used in the right decision.
The deliverable
What it is
The three figures answer different questions. Total says whether the category is interesting; serviceable says what the organisation could reach; obtainable says what it could realistically win. Only the last belongs in a plan.
Reporting only the first is the standard error, and it is usually not an accident — the largest number is the one that gets the investment approved.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The total
Everything spent on this need, everywhere, by everyone.
3 attributes: Total market · Boundaries · As at
LearnThe serviceable
The part the organisation could actually reach and serve.
3 attributes: Serviceable market · Constraint · Share of total
LearnThe obtainable
What the organisation could realistically win.
3 attributes: Obtainable market · Assumed share · Over
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Only the obtainable figure belongs in a plan. The total exists to decide whether the category is interesting at all.
The other components in sizing
The build-up
The unit calculation: how many, how often, at what price — a number that can be argued with, which is its whole value.
LearnThe sanity check
What the number implies, tested against something observable — because implausible implications surface immediately.
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