Market Timing · The window · Component
The opening
What created the window — because without naming it the duration cannot be estimated at all.
The deliverable
What it is
Windows are created by something specific: a regulation, a technology, an incumbent’s difficulty, a shift in behaviour. Naming it is what makes the window analysable.
A window nobody can explain is usually a period of general optimism rather than an actual opening.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The visibility
Who else can see it.
3 attributes: Visibility · Who else sees it · Already responding
LearnThe durability
Whether the cause is temporary.
3 attributes: Durability · What would end it · Confidence
Learn
“The market is growing” is not a cause. A regulation taking effect in March is.
The other components in the window
The duration
How long it is expected to last, and what closes it — because an opening with no estimated duration is treated as permanent.
LearnThe lead time
How long the organisation needs to be ready — because where that exceeds the window, the decision is already made.
Learn