Competitors · Reading their strategy · Component
The prediction
What is expected next, recorded so the reading can be checked — because an unchecked inference is a story.
The deliverable
What it is
A competitive reading nobody ever checks cannot improve. Writing the prediction down converts an opinion into something that can be right or wrong.
The failures are more instructive than the successes, because they identify which assumption about the competitor was mistaken.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The expectation
What the competitor is expected to do.
3 attributes: Prediction · By when · Confidence
LearnThe correction
What the miss says about the reading.
3 attributes: What was wrong · Revised reading · Revised
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Write the prediction with a date. An inference nobody checks cannot improve and is only a story.
The other components in reading their strategy
The signals
Hiring, investment, pricing moves and withdrawals — the observable behaviour that describes a competitor’s intent.
LearnThe inferred intent
What they appear to be trying to become, and what they must believe about the market for their behaviour to make sense.
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