HR · Workforce planning · Component

The demand forecast

What capability the plan will require, over a horizon long enough that the organisation could still acquire it.

The deliverable

What it is

The forecast is derived from the plan rather than from last year’s headcount. If it cannot be traced to something the organisation intends to do, it is an extrapolation wearing a forecast’s clothes.

The horizon must exceed the time it takes to acquire the capability. A twelve-month requirement for a capability with an eighteen-month lead time has already been decided by default.

One level in

What it is made of

Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.

  1. The requirement

    What capability is needed, at what depth, by when.

    3 attributes: Capability · Depth needed · Needed by

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  2. The horizon

    How far ahead the forecast reaches, set against how long capability takes to acquire.

    2 attributes: Forecast period · Acquisition lead time

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  3. The assumptions

    What the forecast depends on being true — growth rate, attrition, retained work.

    3 attributes: Assumption · Attrition rate · Confidence

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Set the horizon from acquisition lead time, not from the planning calendar. A shorter horizon decides the question by default.