Market Opportunities · Growth and direction · Component
The drivers
What is causing the movement, named specifically — because a growth figure with no named cause cannot be forecast.
The deliverable
What it is
Growth has causes: a regulation, a technology, a demographic shift, a price decline, a change in what is socially expected. Usually one or two dominate.
The value of naming them is that each can be assessed for durability and each can be watched. A driver that could stop is a risk with a name.
One level in
What it is made of
Each element is a constituent part of the component. Follow one to see the attributes it carries.
The durability
How long the driver is likely to keep operating.
3 attributes: Expected duration · Reason · Confidence
LearnThe reversal
What would stop or reverse the driver.
3 attributes: Reversal event · Likelihood · Watched by
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Name the specific event that would stop the driver. It turns market risk into something a person can watch.
The other components in growth and direction
The rate
How fast the market is growing or shrinking, over a period long enough to show a cycle rather than a recovery.
LearnThe stage
Where the market sits in its lifecycle, and what that implies — because the same size figure means different things at each stage.
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